Average surprise
Avg surprise
What it is
Average gap between reported and estimated earnings over the last 8 quarters, in percentage. An average surprise of +5% means the company beats consensus by 5% on average — either through execution quality or conservative guidance.
How to read it
A strong positive average surprise (>5%) across multiple quarters is an excellent quality signal. A persistent negative surprise (< −2%) signals either a company struggling to hit its own guides, or a sector where analysts are structurally too optimistic.
Common reference points
- Very positive surprise> +5%
- Positive surprise+2 to +5%
- In line with expectations−2 to +2%
- Underperformance vs expectations< −2%
Orders of magnitude, not a rule: the same number does not mean the same thing from one sector to the next.
What it does not tell you
Doesn't capture surprise quality (revenue vs cost-cutting). Doesn't capture one-time items that can distort a quarter either. Look in parallel at organic revenue growth.
Other measures — Analyst consensus
Educational content. Polaris is not a registered investment adviser and makes no recommendation.