Geopolitical regime
Geopolitics
What it is
Overall geopolitical stress level measured primarily via the GPR (Geopolitical Risk Index) — an index based on the frequency of press articles mentioning geopolitical risks. Goes from calm to shock (major war, systemic crisis).
How to read it
A calm regime favors risk assets and growth. A tense regime weighs on cyclical assets, boosts safe havens (gold, US dollar, defense, energy). A shock regime typically triggers brutal flight-to-quality — sharp equity drawdowns.
Common reference points
- Calm — constructive environmentGPR < 100
- Elevated — latent tensionsGPR 100 – 200
- Tense — active riskGPR 200 – 300
- Shock — major crisisGPR > 300
Orders of magnitude, not a rule: the same number does not mean the same thing from one sector to the next.
What it does not tell you
The index is lagging — it rises after an event, not before. And it's not equally weighted: war in Ukraine and a remote regional tension can weigh equally in the index but have very different market impacts. Read qualitatively.
Other measures — Macro
Educational content. Polaris is not a registered investment adviser and makes no recommendation.