Commodities
Oil volatility (realized)
Oil vol
What it is
Realized WTI volatility over a window (30 or 90 days), annualized. Measures the average amplitude of price moves. High vol signals a stressed market or an ongoing supply/demand shock.
How to read it
Vol < 20% = calm market. 20-40% = normal. > 40% = stress (typically geopolitical: war, sanctions, OPEC+ surprise). Vol peaks often precede price peaks by a few months.
Common reference points
- Calm< 20%
- Normal20 – 40%
- Tense40 – 70%
- Shock> 70%
Orders of magnitude, not a rule: the same number does not mean the same thing from one sector to the next.
What it does not tell you
Realized vol is by construction LAGGING — it rises after the shock. Implied vol (via oil options, OVX) is forward-looking and more useful for anticipation.
Other measures — Commodities
Educational content. Polaris is not a registered investment adviser and makes no recommendation.