Treasury yield
What it is
Interest rate paid by a government bond (US Treasury or Canadian bonds), expressed in annual percentage. Broken out by maturity (2y, 5y, 10y, 30y). It's the reference cost of risk-free money for that duration.
How to read it
The 10-year is the world benchmark: mortgage rates, equity valuations, dollar attractiveness — all derive from it. Rapid increases pressure long-duration assets (tech, long bonds, real estate). Decreases signal either anticipated recession or flight to quality.
Common reference points
- Very low — accommodative environment< 2%
- Historic norm2 – 4%
- Elevated — pressure on long-duration4 – 5%
- Very elevated — stress> 5%
Orders of magnitude, not a rule: the same number does not mean the same thing from one sector to the next.
What it does not tell you
Nominal yield is only half the story — compare to inflation for the REAL yield, which drives investment decisions. Long yields also include a term premium that varies with overall sentiment.
Other measures — Macro — rates
Educational content. Polaris is not a registered investment adviser and makes no recommendation.