Macro — stress & sentiment
Treasury volatility (MOVE proxy)
MOVE
What it is
US bond market implied volatility, measured via options on Treasuries. The equity VIX's equivalent for bonds. Reflects uncertainty about the interest rate path.
How to read it
Low MOVE (< 80) = predictable bond market. High MOVE (> 150) = major uncertainty about Fed policy, increased risk for long-duration assets (tech, long bonds). A rising MOVE often precedes a rising equity VIX.
Common reference points
- Calm< 80
- Normal80 – 120
- Stressed120 – 180
- Crisis> 180
Orders of magnitude, not a rule: the same number does not mean the same thing from one sector to the next.
What it does not tell you
MOVE is less famous than VIX but often more relevant — when rates become unpredictable, everything else follows. It's the favorite indicator of professional macro funds.
Other measures — Macro — stress & sentiment
Educational content. Polaris is not a registered investment adviser and makes no recommendation.