Un-inversion window
Un-inversion
What it is
Number of days since the 10Y-2Y yield curve re-steepened to positive after a sustained inversion. Historically, recession arrives 6-12 months AFTER un-inversion, not during the inversion itself.
How to read it
A fresh un-inversion (< 3 months) = red alert, recession risk rising fast. 6-12 months post-un-inversion = historic trigger zone. Beyond 18 months without recession, the signal weakens.
Common reference points
- No recent un-inversion — calm> 18 months
- Caution12 – 18 months
- Risk zone6 – 12 months
- Immediate risk< 6 months
Orders of magnitude, not a rule: the same number does not mean the same thing from one sector to the next.
What it does not tell you
Historical sample is small (10 un-inversions in 60 years). The 2022-2024 cycle is atypical (massive monetary policy, Fed balance sheet). Watch alongside other indicators.
Other measures — Macro — stress & sentiment
Educational content. Polaris is not a registered investment adviser and makes no recommendation.