Macro regime composite score
Regime score
What it is
Polaris synthetic score ranging from −1 (maximum stress, risk-off) to +1 (ideal conditions, risk-on). Combines 6 weighted components: yield curve, VIX, HY credit spread, Sahm Rule, inversion state, spread dynamics.
How to read it
Score > 0.5 = market favorable to risk assets. Score 0 ± 0.5 = mixed signal, caution. Score < −0.3 = stress, defensive. The DELTA of the score (1-month change) is often more informative than the absolute level.
Common reference points
- Risk-on — full sails> +0.5
- Constructive+0.2 to +0.5
- Neutral−0.2 to +0.2
- Cautious−0.5 to −0.2
- Risk-off — mandatory defensive< −0.5
Orders of magnitude, not a rule: the same number does not mean the same thing from one sector to the next.
What it does not tell you
This is a heuristic weighting — not a predictive model. Built on public data, transparent (click each component), but doesn't capture everything (politics, AI, demographics). Use as barometer, not oracle.
Other measures — Macro — stress & sentiment
Educational content. Polaris is not a registered investment adviser and makes no recommendation.